Pêro Pinheiro 4–0 Pombal: Result & Stats

Pêro Pinheiro

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pombal

10/16/2022

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundParque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro61%

×Draw20%

Pombal19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pêro PinheiroExpected goals in this matchPombal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.13

Pêro Pinheiro

2.20

Pombal

1.13

Pêro Pinheiro creates 95% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.14

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro

2.14

Pombal

1.25

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro

1.00

Pombal

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Pombal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

Pombal →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw

81%

Pêro Pinheiro or Pombal

80%

Draw or Pombal

39%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+

39%

Pombal wins by 2+

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals

89%

Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals

64%

Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals

37%

Pombal 1+ goals

68%

Pombal 2+ goals

31%

Pombal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)

77%

Pombal (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Pombal away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 2.14 + Pombal defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.20

Pombal attack 1.25 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more

61%

level

20%

Pombal scores more

19%

Pêro Pinheiro at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Pêro Pinheiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff