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Pêro Pinheiro vs Ferreiras — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ferreiras
Ferreiras
10/2/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundParque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro69%
×Draw20%
Ferreiras11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pêro Pinheiro
1.95
Ferreiras
0.63

Pêro Pinheiro creates 210% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro
2.14
Ferreiras
0.25

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.00
Ferreiras
1.75

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par
Ferreiras+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

Ferreiras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw
89%
Pêro Pinheiro or Ferreiras
80%
Draw or Ferreiras
31%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
43%
Ferreiras wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
86%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
58%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
31%
Ferreiras 1+ goals
47%
Ferreiras 2+ goals
13%
Ferreiras 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
86%
Ferreiras (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Ferreiras away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 2.14 + Ferreiras defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ferreiras attack 0.25 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more
69%
level
20%
Ferreiras scores more
11%

Pêro Pinheiro at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Pêro Pinheiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pêro Pinheiro vs Ferreiras

Pêro Pinheiro beat Ferreiras 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Parque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro in Sintra.