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Pêro Pinheiro vs Feirense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Feirense
Feirense
9/22/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundParque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro44%
×Draw24%
Feirense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pêro Pinheiro
1.62
Feirense
1.32

Pêro Pinheiro creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro
2.14
Feirense
1.64

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.00
Feirense
1.09

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw
69%
Pêro Pinheiro or Feirense
76%
Draw or Feirense
56%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
23%
Feirense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
80%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
48%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
22%
Feirense 1+ goals
73%
Feirense 2+ goals
38%
Feirense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
59%
Feirense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 2.14 + Feirense defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.62

Feirense attack 1.64 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more
44%
level
24%
Feirense scores more
31%

Pêro Pinheiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pêro Pinheiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Pêro Pinheiro 1–0 Feirense

Pêro Pinheiro beat Feirense 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Parque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro in Sintra.