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Pêro Pinheiro vs FC Serpa — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Serpa
FC Serpa
10/22/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundParque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro23%
×Draw21%
FC Serpa56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pêro Pinheiro
1.32
FC Serpa
2.13

FC Serpa creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro
2.14
FC Serpa
3.25

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.00
FC Serpa
0.50

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par
FC Serpa+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

FC Serpa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw
44%
Pêro Pinheiro or FC Serpa
79%
Draw or FC Serpa
77%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
10%
FC Serpa wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
73%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
38%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
15%
FC Serpa 1+ goals
88%
FC Serpa 2+ goals
63%
FC Serpa 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
30%
FC Serpa (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

FC Serpa away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 2.14 + FC Serpa defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Serpa attack 3.25 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more
23%
level
21%
FC Serpa scores more
56%

FC Serpa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Serpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Pêro Pinheiro 0–0 FC Serpa

Pêro Pinheiro and FC Serpa drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Parque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro in Sintra.