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Pêro Pinheiro vs Fafe — Taça de Portugal 2018

Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
FT
0 – 1
Fafe
Fafe
10/11/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundParque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro34%
×Draw27%
Fafe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pêro Pinheiro
1.20
Fafe
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro
2.14
Fafe
1.63

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.00
Fafe
0.25

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par
Fafe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

Fafe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw
61%
Pêro Pinheiro or Fafe
73%
Draw or Fafe
66%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
14%
Fafe wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
70%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
34%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
12%
Fafe 1+ goals
73%
Fafe 2+ goals
38%
Fafe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
46%
Fafe (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Fafe away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 2.14 + Fafe defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fafe attack 1.63 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more
34%
level
27%
Fafe scores more
39%

Fafe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pêro Pinheiro vs Fafe

Fafe beat Pêro Pinheiro 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Parque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro in Sintra.