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Pêro Pinheiro vs Atlético CP — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético CP
Atlético CP
6/4/2023Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 6Parque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pêro Pinheiro26%
×Draw30%
Atlético CP44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pêro Pinheiro
0.83
Atlético CP
1.17

Atlético CP creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.33
Atlético CP
1.00

allows per match

Pêro Pinheiro
1.33
Atlético CP
0.33

finishing

Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par
Atlético CP+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pêro Pinheiro ↓

Atlético CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Pêro Pinheiro or draw
56%
Pêro Pinheiro or Atlético CP
70%
Draw or Atlético CP
74%

Winning margin

Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
8%
Atlético CP wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
56%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
20%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
5%
Atlético CP 1+ goals
69%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
33%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
37%
Atlético CP (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pêro Pinheiro at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Atlético CP away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pêro Pinheiro attack 1.33 + Atlético CP defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Atlético CP attack 1.00 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pêro Pinheiro scores more
26%
level
30%
Atlético CP scores more
44%

Atlético CP at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pêro Pinheiro vs Atlético CP

Atlético CP beat Pêro Pinheiro 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Parque de Jogos Pardal Monteiro in Sintra.