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Stuttgart U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Stuttgart U19
Stuttgart U19
CANC
00:00
Kaiserslautern U19
Kaiserslautern U19
4/18/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 23Robert-Schlienz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stuttgart U1958%
×Draw19%
Kaiserslautern U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stuttgart U19
2.49
Kaiserslautern U19
1.51

Stuttgart U19 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 59 away

creates per match

Stuttgart U19
2.71
Kaiserslautern U19
1.66

allows per match

Stuttgart U19
1.36
Kaiserslautern U19
2.27

finishing

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par
Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stuttgart U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Stuttgart U19 or draw
77%
Stuttgart U19 or Kaiserslautern U19
81%
Draw or Kaiserslautern U19
42%

Winning margin

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+
38%
Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals
92%
Stuttgart U19 2+ goals
71%
Stuttgart U19 3+ goals
45%
Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals
78%
Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals
44%
Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stuttgart U19 at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.27 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.71 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.49

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.66 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stuttgart U19 scores more
58%
level
19%
Kaiserslautern U19 scores more
23%

Stuttgart U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stuttgart U19 host Kaiserslautern U19

April 18, 2020: Stuttgart U19 take on Kaiserslautern U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stuttgart U19 host Kaiserslautern U19 at Robert-Schlienz-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.