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Peresvet Podolsk vs Strogino — Second League - Group 3 2020

Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Strogino
Strogino
10/29/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk37%
×Draw25%
Strogino38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peresvet Podolsk
1.46
Strogino
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 92 away

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.29
Strogino
1.10

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.88
Strogino
1.64

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par
Strogino+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Strogino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw
62%
Peresvet Podolsk or Strogino
75%
Draw or Strogino
63%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
17%
Strogino wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
77%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
43%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
18%
Strogino 1+ goals
77%
Strogino 2+ goals
44%
Strogino 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
49%
Strogino (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

Strogino away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + Strogino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Strogino attack 1.10 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more
37%
level
25%
Strogino scores more
38%

Strogino at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Strogino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Peresvet Podolsk 1–1 Strogino

Peresvet Podolsk and Strogino drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.