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Peresvet Podolsk vs Ryazan — Second League - Group 3 2020

Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ryazan
Ryazan
8/15/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk29%
×Draw25%
Ryazan46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peresvet Podolsk
1.19
Ryazan
1.57

Ryazan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 93 away

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.29
Ryazan
1.26

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.88
Ryazan
1.08

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par
Ryazan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Ryazan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw
54%
Peresvet Podolsk or Ryazan
75%
Draw or Ryazan
71%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
12%
Ryazan wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
70%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
33%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
12%
Ryazan 1+ goals
79%
Ryazan 2+ goals
46%
Ryazan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
39%
Ryazan (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

Ryazan away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + Ryazan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ryazan attack 1.26 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more
29%
level
25%
Ryazan scores more
46%

Ryazan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ryazan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Peresvet Podolsk 0–1 Ryazan

Ryazan beat Peresvet Podolsk 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.