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Peresvet Podolsk vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
10/2/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk19%
×Draw23%
Rodina Moskva II58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peresvet Podolsk
0.91
Rodina Moskva II
1.79

Rodina Moskva II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 17 away

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva II
1.71

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.88
Rodina Moskva II
0.53

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw
42%
Peresvet Podolsk or Rodina Moskva II
77%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
81%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
6%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
60%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
23%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
6%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
83%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
53%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
25%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.91

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.71 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more
19%
level
23%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
58%

Rodina Moskva II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peresvet Podolsk vs Rodina Moskva II

Rodina Moskva II beat Peresvet Podolsk 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.