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Peresvet Podolsk vs Rodina Moskva — Second League - Group 3 2020

Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
11/14/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk22%
×Draw23%
Rodina Moskva55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peresvet Podolsk
1.08
Rodina Moskva
1.84

Rodina Moskva creates 70% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 16 away

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva
1.81

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.88
Rodina Moskva
0.88

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw
45%
Peresvet Podolsk or Rodina Moskva
77%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
78%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
8%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
66%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
29%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
10%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
84%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
55%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
29%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Rodina Moskva attack 1.81 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more
22%
level
23%
Rodina Moskva scores more
55%

Rodina Moskva at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peresvet Podolsk vs Rodina Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat Peresvet Podolsk 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.