Peresvet Podolsk 1–0 Metallurg Vidnoye

Peresvet Podolsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Metallurg Vidnoye

8/1/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk55%

×Draw21%

Metallurg Vidnoye24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peresvet PodolskExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Vidnoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.32

Peresvet Podolsk

2.08

Metallurg Vidnoye

1.32

Peresvet Podolsk creates 58% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 30 away

1.29

creates per match

0.77

1.88

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk

1.29

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.77

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk

1.88

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw

76%

Peresvet Podolsk or Metallurg Vidnoye

79%

Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye

45%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+

33%

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals

87%

Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals

61%

Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals

34%

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals

73%

Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals

38%

Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)

69%

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.08

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more

55%

level

21%

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more

24%

Peresvet Podolsk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Peresvet Podolsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff