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Peresvet Podolsk vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny — Second League - Group 3 2020

Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
10/28/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk27%
×Draw23%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peresvet Podolsk
1.26
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.77

Kosmos Dolgoprudny creates 40% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 39 away

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.29
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.67

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.88
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.23

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par
Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Kosmos Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw
51%
Peresvet Podolsk or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
77%
Draw or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
73%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
11%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
72%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
36%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
13%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
83%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
53%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
36%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.67 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more
27%
level
23%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more
49%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kosmos Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Peresvet Podolsk 1–2 Kosmos Dolgoprudny

Kosmos Dolgoprudny beat Peresvet Podolsk 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.