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Peresvet Podolsk vs Kompozit — Second League - Group 3 2020

Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Kompozit
Kompozit
9/17/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk28%
×Draw23%
Kompozit49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peresvet Podolsk
1.36
Kompozit
1.85

Kompozit creates 36% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 23 away

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.29
Kompozit
1.83

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.88
Kompozit
1.43

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par
Kompozit+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Kompozit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw
51%
Peresvet Podolsk or Kompozit
77%
Draw or Kompozit
72%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
12%
Kompozit wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
74%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
39%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
16%
Kompozit 1+ goals
84%
Kompozit 2+ goals
55%
Kompozit 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
37%
Kompozit (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

Kompozit away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + Kompozit defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kompozit attack 1.83 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more
28%
level
23%
Kompozit scores more
49%

Kompozit at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peresvet Podolsk vs Kompozit

Kompozit beat Peresvet Podolsk 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.