Peresvet Podolsk 1–3 Khimki II: Result & Stats

Peresvet Podolsk

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Khimki II

10/16/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk37%

×Draw24%

Khimki II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peresvet PodolskExpected goals in this matchKhimki II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.62

Peresvet Podolsk

1.56

Khimki II

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 74 away

1.29

creates per match

1.36

1.88

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk

1.29

Khimki II

1.36

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk

1.88

Khimki II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Khimki II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw

61%

Peresvet Podolsk or Khimki II

76%

Draw or Khimki II

63%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+

18%

Khimki II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals

79%

Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals

46%

Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals

21%

Khimki II 1+ goals

80%

Khimki II 2+ goals

48%

Khimki II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)

48%

Khimki II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more

37%

level

24%

Khimki II scores more

39%

Khimki II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khimki II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff