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Peresvet Podolsk vs FK Sokol Saratov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
5/11/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 7Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk23%
×Draw25%
FK Sokol Saratov52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peresvet Podolsk
1.01
FK Sokol Saratov
1.63

FK Sokol Saratov creates 61% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 48 away

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.29
FK Sokol Saratov
1.38

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk
1.88
FK Sokol Saratov
0.73

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw
48%
Peresvet Podolsk or FK Sokol Saratov
75%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
77%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
8%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
64%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
27%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
8%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
80%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
48%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
31%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.29 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.01

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.38 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more
23%
level
25%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
52%

FK Sokol Saratov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Peresvet Podolsk 0–6 FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Peresvet Podolsk 6-0 in Second League - Group 3 on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.