Peresvet Podolsk 0–0 Baltika: Result & Stats | Cup

Peresvet Podolsk

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baltika

10/5/2022

Cup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Peresvet Podolsk31%

×Draw27%

Baltika42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peresvet PodolskExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.38

Peresvet Podolsk

1.15

Baltika

1.38

Baltika creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.43

1.33

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Peresvet Podolsk

1.00

Baltika

1.43

allows per match

Peresvet Podolsk

1.33

Baltika

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peresvet Podolsk ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Peresvet Podolsk or draw

58%

Peresvet Podolsk or Baltika

73%

Draw or Baltika

69%

Winning margin

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+

13%

Baltika wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals

68%

Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals

32%

Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals

11%

Baltika 1+ goals

75%

Baltika 2+ goals

40%

Baltika 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)

43%

Baltika (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peresvet Podolsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.00 + Baltika defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Baltika attack 1.43 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peresvet Podolsk scores more

31%

level

27%

Baltika scores more

42%

Baltika at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff