Peralada 2–0 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Peralada

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

Sergio Romero 47'

Dani Gómez 7'

11/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 11Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Peralada45%

×Draw27%

Pobla Mafumet28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeraladaExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.04

Peralada

1.39

Pobla Mafumet

1.04

Peralada creates 34% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 76 away

1.44

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Peralada

1.44

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Peralada

1.00

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Peralada or draw

72%

Peralada or Pobla Mafumet

73%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

55%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+

21%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals

75%

Peralada 2+ goals

40%

Peralada 3+ goals

16%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

65%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

28%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)

61%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Peralada scores more

45%

level

27%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

28%

Peralada at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

50'

54'

67'

Aleix Grabulosa← Danilo Luís

67'

Teo Pozo← Pouget

68'

Junior← Jandro

78'

Llorenç Busquets← Dani Gómez

78'

Iker Vázquez← Marc Gelmà

78'

Micaló← Marc Padilla

89'

L. Igbineweka← F. Schug

89'

Manuel Pavon← Arnau Sans

Peralada

Pobla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Àlex Marsal

50'▲Espuña←▼S. Varese

68'▲Junior←▼Jandro

78'▲Llorenç Busquets←▼Dani Gómez

78'▲Iker Vázquez←▼Marc Gelmà

78'▲Micaló←▼Marc Padilla

Peralada substitutes

EspuñaJuniorBusquetsVázquezMicaló

Manager: Adolfo Baines

54'▲Guzmán←▼José Enrique

67'▲Aleix Grabulosa←▼Danilo Luís

67'▲Teo Pozo←▼Pouget

89'▲L. Igbineweka←▼F. Schug

89'▲Manuel Pavon←▼Arnau Sans

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

GuzmánGrabulosaPozoIgbinewekaPavon