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Peralada vs Montañesa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Peralada
Peralada
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Montañesa
Montañesa
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Peralada52%
×Draw27%
Montañesa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peralada
1.46
Montañesa
0.84

Peralada creates 74% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 81 away

creates per match

Peralada
1.44
Montañesa
0.68

allows per match

Peralada
1.00
Montañesa
1.47

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par
Montañesa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Montañesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Peralada or draw
78%
Peralada or Montañesa
73%
Draw or Montañesa
48%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+
26%
Montañesa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals
77%
Peralada 2+ goals
43%
Peralada 3+ goals
18%
Montañesa 1+ goals
57%
Montañesa 2+ goals
21%
Montañesa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)
70%
Montañesa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Montañesa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Montañesa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Montañesa attack 0.68 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peralada scores more
52%
level
27%
Montañesa scores more
22%

Peralada at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peralada vs Montañesa

Peralada and Montañesa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Peralada in Peralada.