Peralada 1–0 Igualada: Result & Stats

Peralada

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Igualada

3/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 26Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Peralada55%

×Draw24%

Igualada21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeraladaExpected goals in this matchIgualada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.97

Peralada

1.72

Igualada

0.97

Peralada creates 77% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 28 away

1.44

creates per match

0.93

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Peralada

1.44

Igualada

0.93

allows per match

Peralada

1.00

Igualada

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par

Igualada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Igualada →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Peralada or draw

79%

Peralada or Igualada

76%

Draw or Igualada

45%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+

30%

Igualada wins by 2+

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals

82%

Peralada 2+ goals

51%

Peralada 3+ goals

25%

Igualada 1+ goals

62%

Igualada 2+ goals

25%

Igualada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)

72%

Igualada (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Igualada away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Igualada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Igualada attack 0.93 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Peralada scores more

55%

level

24%

Igualada scores more

21%

Peralada at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff