Perak 1–2 Selangor: Result & Stats | Malaysia Cup

Perak

FT

1 – 2

Selangor

D. Royizzat 10'

W. Haikal 85'

S. Selvaraj 72'

11/10/2021

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 6Stadium Perak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Perak42%

×Draw26%

Selangor32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PerakExpected goals in this matchSelangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.20

Perak

1.41

Selangor

1.20

Perak creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.71

creates per match

1.26

1.14

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Perak

1.71

Selangor

1.26

allows per match

Perak

1.14

Selangor

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Perak+0.00on par

Selangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Perak ↓

Selangor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Perak or draw

68%

Perak or Selangor

74%

Draw or Selangor

58%

Winning margin

Perak wins by 2+

20%

Selangor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Perak 1+ goals

76%

Perak 2+ goals

41%

Perak 3+ goals

17%

Selangor 1+ goals

70%

Selangor 2+ goals

34%

Selangor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Perak (draw refunded)

57%

Selangor (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Perak at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Selangor away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Perak attack 1.71 + Selangor defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.41

Selangor attack 1.26 + Perak defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Perak scores more

42%

level

26%

Selangor scores more

32%

Perak at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Perak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. Royizzat

72'

S. Selvaraj

85'

W. Haikal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff