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PEPO vs KuPS — Suomen Cup 2018

PEPO
PEPO
FT
0 – 6
KuPS
KuPS
3/15/2015Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundAmiksen tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

PEPO16%
×Draw18%
KuPS66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEPO
1.12
KuPS
2.46

KuPS creates 120% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

PEPO
1.33
KuPS
1.91

allows per match

PEPO
3.00
KuPS
0.91

finishing

PEPO+0.00on par
KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEPO ↓

KuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

PEPO or draw
34%
PEPO or KuPS
82%
Draw or KuPS
84%

Winning margin

PEPO wins by 2+
6%
KuPS wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

PEPO 1+ goals
67%
PEPO 2+ goals
31%
PEPO 3+ goals
10%
KuPS 1+ goals
91%
KuPS 2+ goals
70%
KuPS 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

PEPO (draw refunded)
19%
KuPS (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEPO at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEPO attack 1.33 + KuPS defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.12

KuPS attack 1.91 + PEPO defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

PEPO scores more
16%
level
18%
KuPS scores more
66%

KuPS at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PEPO vs KuPS

KuPS beat PEPO 6-0 in Suomen Cup on March 15, 2015.

The match was played at Amiksen tekonurmi in Lappeenranta.