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Pepeni vs Victoria Bardar — Cupa 2020

Pepeni
Pepeni
FT
0 – 7
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
8/15/2020CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Sătesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pepeni9%
×Draw12%
Victoria Bardar79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pepeni
1.21
Victoria Bardar
3.54

Victoria Bardar creates 193% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Pepeni
0.50
Victoria Bardar
3.58

allows per match

Pepeni
3.50
Victoria Bardar
1.92

finishing

Pepeni+0.00on par
Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pepeni ↓

Victoria Bardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Pepeni or draw
21%
Pepeni or Victoria Bardar
88%
Draw or Victoria Bardar
91%

Winning margin

Pepeni wins by 2+
3%
Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Pepeni 1+ goals
70%
Pepeni 2+ goals
34%
Pepeni 3+ goals
12%
Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
97%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
86%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Pepeni (draw refunded)
11%
Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pepeni at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pepeni attack 0.50 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Victoria Bardar attack 3.58 + Pepeni defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Pepeni scores more
9%
level
12%
Victoria Bardar scores more
79%

Victoria Bardar at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Pepeni 0–7 Victoria Bardar

Victoria Bardar beat Pepeni 7-0 in Cupa on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Sătesc in Pepeni.