Pepeni 0–1 Făleşti: Result & Stats | Cupa

Pepeni

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Făleşti

D. Maneacov 81'

10/3/2023

Cupa · 2nd RoundStadionul Sătesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pepeni14%

×Draw16%

Făleşti70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PepeniExpected goals in this matchFăleşti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.75

Pepeni

1.15

Făleşti

2.75

Făleşti creates 139% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

2.00

3.50

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Pepeni

0.50

Făleşti

2.00

allows per match

Pepeni

3.50

Făleşti

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pepeni+0.00on par

Făleşti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pepeni ↓

Făleşti →

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Pepeni or draw

30%

Pepeni or Făleşti

84%

Draw or Făleşti

86%

Winning margin

Pepeni wins by 2+

Făleşti wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Pepeni 1+ goals

68%

Pepeni 2+ goals

32%

Pepeni 3+ goals

11%

Făleşti 1+ goals

93%

Făleşti 2+ goals

75%

Făleşti 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Pepeni (draw refunded)

16%

Făleşti (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pepeni at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Făleşti away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pepeni attack 0.50 + Făleşti defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Făleşti attack 2.00 + Pepeni defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Pepeni scores more

14%

level

16%

Făleşti scores more

70%

Făleşti at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Făleşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'

D. Maneacov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff