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PEP vs SAPA II — Suomen Cup 2018

PEP
PEP
FT
0 – 3
SAPA II
SAPA II
3/18/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundLaaksolahden halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PEP15%
×Draw18%
SAPA II67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEP
1.00
SAPA II
2.33

SAPA II creates 133% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

PEP
0.67
SAPA II
2.00

allows per match

PEP
2.67
SAPA II
1.33

finishing

PEP+0.00on par
SAPA II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEP ↓

SAPA II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

PEP or draw
33%
PEP or SAPA II
82%
Draw or SAPA II
85%

Winning margin

PEP wins by 2+
5%
SAPA II wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

PEP 1+ goals
63%
PEP 2+ goals
26%
PEP 3+ goals
8%
SAPA II 1+ goals
90%
SAPA II 2+ goals
67%
SAPA II 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

PEP (draw refunded)
18%
SAPA II (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEP at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

SAPA II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEP attack 0.67 + SAPA II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

SAPA II attack 2.00 + PEP defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

PEP scores more
15%
level
18%
SAPA II scores more
67%

SAPA II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "SAPA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PEP 0 – 3 SAPA II

SAPA II beat PEP 3-0 in Suomen Cup on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Laaksolahden halli in Esbo.