Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

PEP vs Finnkurd — Suomen Cup 2018

PEP
PEP
FT
1 – 3
Finnkurd
Finnkurd
3/23/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundMetsämaa Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PEP49%
×Draw19%
Finnkurd32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEP
2.50
Finnkurd
2.00

PEP creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

PEP
0.67
Finnkurd
1.33

allows per match

PEP
2.67
Finnkurd
4.33

finishing

PEP+0.00on par
Finnkurd+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEP ↓

Finnkurd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

PEP or draw
68%
PEP or Finnkurd
81%
Draw or Finnkurd
51%

Winning margin

PEP wins by 2+
30%
Finnkurd wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

PEP 1+ goals
92%
PEP 2+ goals
71%
PEP 3+ goals
45%
Finnkurd 1+ goals
86%
Finnkurd 2+ goals
59%
Finnkurd 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

PEP (draw refunded)
61%
Finnkurd (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEP at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Finnkurd away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEP attack 0.67 + Finnkurd defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Finnkurd attack 1.33 + PEP defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PEP scores more
49%
level
19%
Finnkurd scores more
32%

PEP at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PEP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PEP 1 – 3 Finnkurd

Finnkurd beat PEP 3-1 in Suomen Cup on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Metsämaa Tekonurmi in Espoo.