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Peoria vs Wichita — USL League Two 2018

Peoria
Peoria
CANC
00:00
Wichita
Wichita
7/10/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 48Shea Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Peoria73%
×Draw15%
Wichita12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peoria
2.75
Wichita
1.02

Peoria creates 170% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 18 away

creates per match

Peoria
2.68
Wichita
0.78

allows per match

Peoria
1.26
Wichita
2.83

finishing

Peoria+0.00on par
Wichita+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peoria ↓

Wichita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Peoria or draw
88%
Peoria or Wichita
85%
Draw or Wichita
27%

Winning margin

Peoria wins by 2+
52%
Wichita wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Peoria 1+ goals
93%
Peoria 2+ goals
75%
Peoria 3+ goals
51%
Wichita 1+ goals
64%
Wichita 2+ goals
27%
Wichita 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Peoria (draw refunded)
86%
Wichita (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peoria at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Wichita away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peoria attack 2.68 + Wichita defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.75

Wichita attack 0.78 + Peoria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Peoria scores more
73%
level
15%
Wichita scores more
12%

Peoria at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peoria vs Wichita — Match Preview

Peoria face Wichita on July 10, 2021 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Peoria host Wichita at Shea Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.