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Peoria vs Thunder Bay Chill — USL League Two 2018

Peoria
Peoriaadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
7/20/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsShea Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Peoria48%
×Draw22%
Thunder Bay Chill30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peoria
1.94
Thunder Bay Chill
1.48

Peoria creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 21 away

creates per match

Peoria
2.68
Thunder Bay Chill
1.71

allows per match

Peoria
1.26
Thunder Bay Chill
1.19

finishing

Peoria+0.00on par
Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peoria ↓

Thunder Bay Chill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Peoria or draw
70%
Peoria or Thunder Bay Chill
78%
Draw or Thunder Bay Chill
52%

Winning margin

Peoria wins by 2+
27%
Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Peoria 1+ goals
86%
Peoria 2+ goals
58%
Peoria 3+ goals
30%
Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
77%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
43%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Peoria (draw refunded)
62%
Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peoria at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Thunder Bay Chill away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peoria attack 2.68 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.94

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.71 + Peoria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Peoria scores more
48%
level
22%
Thunder Bay Chill scores more
30%

Peoria at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Peoria 2–0 Thunder Bay Chill

Peoria beat Thunder Bay Chill 2-0 in USL League Two on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Shea Stadium in Peoria, Illinois.