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Peoria vs St. Charles — USL League Two 2018

Peoria
Peoria
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
St. Charles
St. Charles
5/21/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 3Shea Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Peoria52%
×Draw19%
St. Charles29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peoria
2.50
St. Charles
1.84

Peoria creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 12 away

creates per match

Peoria
2.68
St. Charles
2.42

allows per match

Peoria
1.26
St. Charles
2.33

finishing

Peoria+0.00on par
St. Charles+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peoria ↓

St. Charles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Peoria or draw
71%
Peoria or St. Charles
81%
Draw or St. Charles
48%

Winning margin

Peoria wins by 2+
32%
St. Charles wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Peoria 1+ goals
92%
Peoria 2+ goals
71%
Peoria 3+ goals
45%
St. Charles 1+ goals
84%
St. Charles 2+ goals
55%
St. Charles 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Peoria (draw refunded)
65%
St. Charles (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peoria at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

St. Charles away — creates 2.42, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peoria attack 2.68 + St. Charles defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

St. Charles attack 2.42 + Peoria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peoria scores more
52%
level
19%
St. Charles scores more
29%

Peoria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peoria vs St. Charles

St. Charles beat Peoria 3-2 in USL League Two on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Shea Stadium in Peoria, Illinois.