Peoria 6–1 Springfield ASC: Result & Stats

Peoria

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Springfield ASC

7/10/2023

USL League Two · Central Conference - 15Shea Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Peoria71%

×Draw16%

Springfield ASC13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeoriaExpected goals in this matchSpringfield ASC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.13

Peoria

2.77

Springfield ASC

1.13

Peoria creates 145% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 13 away

2.68

creates per match

1.00

1.26

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Peoria

2.68

Springfield ASC

1.00

allows per match

Peoria

1.26

Springfield ASC

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peoria+0.00on par

Springfield ASC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peoria ↓

Springfield ASC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Peoria or draw

87%

Peoria or Springfield ASC

84%

Draw or Springfield ASC

29%

Winning margin

Peoria wins by 2+

50%

Springfield ASC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Peoria 1+ goals

94%

Peoria 2+ goals

76%

Peoria 3+ goals

51%

Springfield ASC 1+ goals

68%

Springfield ASC 2+ goals

31%

Springfield ASC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Peoria (draw refunded)

84%

Springfield ASC (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peoria at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Springfield ASC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peoria attack 2.68 + Springfield ASC defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.77

Springfield ASC attack 1.00 + Peoria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Peoria scores more

71%

level

16%

Springfield ASC scores more

13%

Peoria at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff