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Peoria vs Green Bay Voyageurs — USL League Two 2018

Peoria
Peoria
PST
19:00
Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
6/14/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 31Shea Stadium (Peoria, Illinois)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Peoria65%
×Draw18%
Green Bay Voyageurs17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peoria
2.40
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.13

Peoria creates 112% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 9 away

creates per match

Peoria
2.68
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00

allows per match

Peoria
1.26
Green Bay Voyageurs
2.11

finishing

Peoria+0.00on par
Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peoria ↓

Green Bay Voyageurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Peoria or draw
83%
Peoria or Green Bay Voyageurs
82%
Draw or Green Bay Voyageurs
35%

Winning margin

Peoria wins by 2+
43%
Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Peoria 1+ goals
91%
Peoria 2+ goals
69%
Peoria 3+ goals
42%
Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
68%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
31%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Peoria (draw refunded)
80%
Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peoria at home — creates 2.68, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Green Bay Voyageurs away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peoria attack 2.68 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.40

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Peoria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Peoria scores more
65%
level
18%
Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
17%

Peoria at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peoria face Green Bay Voyageurs (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Peoria hosting Green Bay Voyageurs. Match starts June 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Peoria host Green Bay Voyageurs at Shea Stadium (Peoria, Illinois).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.