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Green Bay Voyageurs vs Peoria — USL League Two 2018

Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
CANC
21:00
Peoria
Peoria
7/4/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 44Capital Credit Union Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Green Bay Voyageurs26%
×Draw25%
Peoria49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.06
Peoria
1.56

Peoria creates 47% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

creates per match

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00
Peoria
2.13

allows per match

Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00
Peoria
1.13

finishing

Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par
Peoria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Bay Voyageurs ↓

Peoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Green Bay Voyageurs or draw
51%
Green Bay Voyageurs or Peoria
75%
Draw or Peoria
74%

Winning margin

Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
10%
Peoria wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
65%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
29%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
9%
Peoria 1+ goals
79%
Peoria 2+ goals
46%
Peoria 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
35%
Peoria (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Bay Voyageurs at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Peoria away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Peoria defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Peoria attack 2.13 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
26%
level
25%
Peoria scores more
49%

Peoria at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Peoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Green Bay Voyageurs vs Peoria — Match Preview

Green Bay Voyageurs face Peoria on July 4, 2021 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Green Bay Voyageurs host Peoria at Capital Credit Union Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.