Pénzügyőr 0–0 Hajdúszoboszlói SE: Result & Stats

Pénzügyőr

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

5/7/2023

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 36Vasas Pasaréti úti Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pénzügyőr48%

×Draw23%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PénzügyőrExpected goals in this matchHajdúszoboszlói SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.34

Pénzügyőr

1.79

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.34

Pénzügyőr creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

2.05

creates per match

1.53

1.16

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Pénzügyőr

2.05

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.53

allows per match

Pénzügyőr

1.16

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pénzügyőr+0.00on par

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pénzügyőr ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Pénzügyőr or draw

71%

Pénzügyőr or Hajdúszoboszlói SE

77%

Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE

52%

Winning margin

Pénzügyőr wins by 2+

26%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pénzügyőr 1+ goals

83%

Pénzügyőr 2+ goals

53%

Pénzügyőr 3+ goals

26%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals

74%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals

39%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)

62%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pénzügyőr at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pénzügyőr attack 2.05 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pénzügyőr scores more

48%

level

23%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more

29%

Pénzügyőr at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pénzügyőr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff