Pénzügyőr 1–0 Füzesgyarmati: Result & Stats

Pénzügyőr

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Füzesgyarmati

5/5/2024

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 27Vasas Pasaréti úti Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pénzügyőr52%

×Draw22%

Füzesgyarmati26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PénzügyőrExpected goals in this matchFüzesgyarmati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.39

Pénzügyőr

2.04

Füzesgyarmati

1.39

Pénzügyőr creates 47% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

0.87

creates per match

1.20

1.57

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Pénzügyőr

0.87

Füzesgyarmati

1.20

allows per match

Pénzügyőr

1.57

Füzesgyarmati

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pénzügyőr+0.00on par

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pénzügyőr ↓

Füzesgyarmati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Pénzügyőr or draw

74%

Pénzügyőr or Füzesgyarmati

78%

Draw or Füzesgyarmati

48%

Winning margin

Pénzügyőr wins by 2+

31%

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pénzügyőr 1+ goals

87%

Pénzügyőr 2+ goals

60%

Pénzügyőr 3+ goals

33%

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

75%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

40%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)

67%

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pénzügyőr at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Füzesgyarmati away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pénzügyőr attack 0.87 + Füzesgyarmati defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.20 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pénzügyőr scores more

52%

level

22%

Füzesgyarmati scores more

26%

Pénzügyőr at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pénzügyőr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff