Pénzügyőr 1–2 BKV Előre: Result & Stats

Pénzügyőr

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

BKV Előre

11/18/2023

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 16Vasas Pasaréti úti Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pénzügyőr34%

×Draw25%

BKV Előre42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PénzügyőrExpected goals in this matchBKV Előre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.52

Pénzügyőr

1.34

BKV Előre

1.52

BKV Előre creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

0.87

creates per match

1.47

1.57

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Pénzügyőr

0.87

BKV Előre

1.47

allows per match

Pénzügyőr

1.57

BKV Előre

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pénzügyőr+0.00on par

BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pénzügyőr ↓

BKV Előre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pénzügyőr or draw

58%

Pénzügyőr or BKV Előre

75%

Draw or BKV Előre

66%

Winning margin

Pénzügyőr wins by 2+

15%

BKV Előre wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Pénzügyőr 1+ goals

74%

Pénzügyőr 2+ goals

39%

Pénzügyőr 3+ goals

15%

BKV Előre 1+ goals

78%

BKV Előre 2+ goals

45%

BKV Előre 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)

45%

BKV Előre (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pénzügyőr at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pénzügyőr attack 0.87 + BKV Előre defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

BKV Előre attack 1.47 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pénzügyőr scores more

34%

level

25%

BKV Előre scores more

42%

BKV Előre at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff