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Penya Independent vs Platges Calvià — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Penya Independent
Penya Independent
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
2/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Penya Independent52%
×Draw25%
Platges Calvià23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penya Independent
1.64
Platges Calvià
1.00

Penya Independent creates 64% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 112 away

creates per match

Penya Independent
2.34
Platges Calvià
1.13

allows per match

Penya Independent
0.88
Platges Calvià
0.94

finishing

Penya Independent+0.00on par
Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Independent ↓

Platges Calvià →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Penya Independent or draw
77%
Penya Independent or Platges Calvià
75%
Draw or Platges Calvià
48%

Winning margin

Penya Independent wins by 2+
28%
Platges Calvià wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Penya Independent 1+ goals
81%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
49%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
23%
Platges Calvià 1+ goals
63%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
26%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Penya Independent (draw refunded)
69%
Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Independent at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Independent attack 2.34 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + Penya Independent defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Penya Independent scores more
52%
level
25%
Platges Calvià scores more
23%

Penya Independent at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Penya Independent 1 – 1 Platges Calvià

Penya Independent and Platges Calvià drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel in Ibiza.