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Penya Independent vs Constància — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Penya Independent
Penya Independent
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Constància
Constància
10/26/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Camp de Futbol Municipal de Sant Miquel de Balansat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Penya Independent53%
×Draw24%
Constància23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penya Independent
1.69
Constància
1.01

Penya Independent creates 67% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 115 away

creates per match

Penya Independent
2.34
Constància
1.15

allows per match

Penya Independent
0.88
Constància
1.04

finishing

Penya Independent+0.00on par
Constància+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Independent ↓

Constància →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Penya Independent or draw
77%
Penya Independent or Constància
76%
Draw or Constància
47%

Winning margin

Penya Independent wins by 2+
29%
Constància wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Penya Independent 1+ goals
82%
Penya Independent 2+ goals
50%
Penya Independent 3+ goals
24%
Constància 1+ goals
64%
Constància 2+ goals
27%
Constància 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Penya Independent (draw refunded)
70%
Constància (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Independent at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Constància away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Independent attack 2.34 + Constància defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.69

Constància attack 1.15 + Penya Independent defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Penya Independent scores more
53%
level
24%
Constància scores more
23%

Penya Independent at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Penya Independent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Penya Independent 3–1 Constància

Penya Independent beat Constància 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal de Sant Miquel de Balansat in Sant Miquel de Balansat.