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Penn vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

Penn
Penn
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nashville
Nashville
4/24/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 10FNB FIELD (Harrisburg, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Penn29%
×Draw27%
Nashville44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penn
1.03
Nashville
1.35

Nashville creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Penn
1.12
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

Penn
1.41
Nashville
0.94

finishing

Penn+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penn ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Penn or draw
56%
Penn or Nashville
73%
Draw or Nashville
71%

Winning margin

Penn wins by 2+
11%
Nashville wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Penn 1+ goals
64%
Penn 2+ goals
28%
Penn 3+ goals
9%
Nashville 1+ goals
74%
Nashville 2+ goals
39%
Nashville 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Penn (draw refunded)
39%
Nashville (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penn at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penn attack 1.12 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nashville attack 1.29 + Penn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Penn scores more
29%
level
27%
Nashville scores more
44%

Nashville at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Penn 0–0 Nashville

Penn and Nashville drew 0-0 in USL Championship on April 24, 2018.

The match was played at FNB FIELD (Harrisburg, Pennsylvania).