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Peninsula Power vs Western Sydney Wanderers — Australia Cup 2021

Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderersadvanced
7/22/2025Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 32AJ Kelly Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Peninsula Power22%
×Draw20%
Western Sydney Wanderers58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peninsula Power
1.29
Western Sydney Wanderers
2.21

Western Sydney Wanderers creates 71% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Peninsula Power
1.20
Western Sydney Wanderers
2.63

allows per match

Peninsula Power
1.80
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.38

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw
42%
Peninsula Power or Western Sydney Wanderers
80%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers
78%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+
9%
Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals
72%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
37%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
14%
Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals
89%
Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals
65%
Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
27%
Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 1.20 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 2.63 + Peninsula Power defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Peninsula Power scores more
22%
level
20%
Western Sydney Wanderers scores more
58%

Western Sydney Wanderers at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Peninsula Power 0–3 Western Sydney Wanderers

Western Sydney Wanderers beat Peninsula Power 3-0 in Australia Cup on July 22, 2025.

The match was played at AJ Kelly Park in Brisbane.