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Peninsula Power vs Sydney United — Australia Cup 2021

Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sydney United
Sydney Unitedadvanced
8/28/2022Australia CupAustralia Cup · Quarter-finalsA.J. Kelly Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Peninsula Power18%
×Draw22%
Sydney United60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peninsula Power
0.94
Sydney United
1.90

Sydney United creates 102% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Peninsula Power
1.20
Sydney United
2.00

allows per match

Peninsula Power
1.80
Sydney United
0.67

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par
Sydney United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

Sydney United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw
40%
Peninsula Power or Sydney United
78%
Draw or Sydney United
82%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+
6%
Sydney United wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals
61%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
24%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
7%
Sydney United 1+ goals
85%
Sydney United 2+ goals
56%
Sydney United 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
23%
Sydney United (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Sydney United away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 1.20 + Sydney United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Sydney United attack 2.00 + Peninsula Power defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Peninsula Power scores more
18%
level
22%
Sydney United scores more
60%

Sydney United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Peninsula Power 0–1 Sydney United

Sydney United beat Peninsula Power 1-0 in Australia Cup on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at A.J. Kelly Park in Brisbane.