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Peninsula Power vs Rochedale Rovers — Queensland NPL 2026

Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rochedale Rovers
Rochedale Rovers
6/22/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 16A.J. Kelly Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Peninsula Power59%
×Draw21%
Rochedale Rovers20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peninsula Power
2.13
Rochedale Rovers
1.16

Peninsula Power creates 84% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 31 away

creates per match

Peninsula Power
2.42
Rochedale Rovers
1.06

allows per match

Peninsula Power
1.25
Rochedale Rovers
1.84

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par
Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

Rochedale Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw
80%
Peninsula Power or Rochedale Rovers
79%
Draw or Rochedale Rovers
41%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+
36%
Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals
88%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
63%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
35%
Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals
69%
Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals
32%
Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
75%
Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.25 · 97 matches

Rochedale Rovers away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 2.42 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.13

Rochedale Rovers attack 1.06 + Peninsula Power defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Peninsula Power scores more
59%
level
21%
Rochedale Rovers scores more
20%

Peninsula Power at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Peninsula Power 2–1 Rochedale Rovers

Peninsula Power beat Rochedale Rovers 2-1 in Queensland NPL on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at A.J. Kelly Park in Brisbane.