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Peninsula Power vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland NPL 2026

Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power
FT
8 – 1
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
2/8/2020Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 1Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Peninsula Power68%
×Draw17%
Magpies Crusaders15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peninsula Power
2.66
Magpies Crusaders
1.18

Peninsula Power creates 125% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 30 away

creates per match

Peninsula Power
2.42
Magpies Crusaders
1.10

allows per match

Peninsula Power
1.25
Magpies Crusaders
2.90

finishing

Peninsula Power+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peninsula Power ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Peninsula Power or draw
85%
Peninsula Power or Magpies Crusaders
83%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
32%

Winning margin

Peninsula Power wins by 2+
47%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Peninsula Power 1+ goals
93%
Peninsula Power 2+ goals
74%
Peninsula Power 3+ goals
49%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
69%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
33%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Peninsula Power (draw refunded)
82%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peninsula Power at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.25 · 97 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peninsula Power attack 2.42 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.66

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.10 + Peninsula Power defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Peninsula Power scores more
68%
level
17%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
15%

Peninsula Power at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Peninsula Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Peninsula Power 8–1 Magpies Crusaders

Peninsula Power beat Magpies Crusaders 8-1 in Queensland NPL on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1 in Brisbane.