Penicuik Athletic 3–0 Stenhousemuir: Result & Stats

Penicuik Athletic

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stenhousemuir

S. Stewart 83'

D. Marsh 56' (OG)

C. Stevenson 51'

10/26/2019

FA Cup · 2nd RoundPenicuik Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Penicuik Athletic26%

×Draw21%

Stenhousemuir53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Penicuik AthleticExpected goals in this matchStenhousemuir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.12

Penicuik Athletic

1.42

Stenhousemuir

2.12

Stenhousemuir creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

1.80

2.43

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Penicuik Athletic

1.43

Stenhousemuir

1.80

allows per match

Penicuik Athletic

2.43

Stenhousemuir

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penicuik Athletic+0.00on par

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penicuik Athletic ↓

Stenhousemuir →

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Penicuik Athletic or draw

47%

Penicuik Athletic or Stenhousemuir

79%

Draw or Stenhousemuir

74%

Winning margin

Penicuik Athletic wins by 2+

11%

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Penicuik Athletic 1+ goals

76%

Penicuik Athletic 2+ goals

41%

Penicuik Athletic 3+ goals

17%

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

88%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

62%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Penicuik Athletic (draw refunded)

32%

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Penicuik Athletic at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Penicuik Athletic attack 1.43 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Stenhousemuir attack 1.80 + Penicuik Athletic defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Penicuik Athletic scores more

26%

level

21%

Stenhousemuir scores more

53%

Stenhousemuir at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stenhousemuir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

C. Stevenson

52'

K. Anderson← R. Watters

56'

D. MarshOwn goal

60'

L. Scullion← C. ONeil

65'

C. McBride← M. McGuigan

72'

S. Stewart← L. Kateleza

83'

S. Stewart↳ C. Stevenson

85'

S. McCrory-Irving← P. Tansey

Penicuik

Stenhousemuir

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽A

▼

▼

Manager: K. Milne

72'▲S. Stewart←▼L. Kateleza

85'▲S. McCrory-Irving←▼P. Tansey

Penicuik Athletic substitutes

16Stewart14McCrory-Irving1Watt17Murray20Forbes

Manager: D. Irons

52'▲K. Anderson←▼R. Watters

60'▲L. Scullion←▼C. ONeil

65'▲C. McBride←▼M. McGuigan

Stenhousemuir substitutes

20Anderson7Scullion16McBride6Dykes17Marley22Potter15Munro