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Penicuik Athletic vs Rutherglen Glencairn — FA Cup 2019

Penicuik Athletic
Penicuik Athletic
FT
4 – 2
Rutherglen Glencairn
Rutherglen Glencairn
9/2/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundPenicuik Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Penicuik Athletic43%
×Draw20%
Rutherglen Glencairn37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penicuik Athletic
2.21
Rutherglen Glencairn
2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Penicuik Athletic
1.43
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.67

allows per match

Penicuik Athletic
2.43
Rutherglen Glencairn
3.00

finishing

Penicuik Athletic+0.00on par
Rutherglen Glencairn+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penicuik Athletic ↓

Rutherglen Glencairn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Penicuik Athletic or draw
63%
Penicuik Athletic or Rutherglen Glencairn
80%
Draw or Rutherglen Glencairn
57%

Winning margin

Penicuik Athletic wins by 2+
25%
Rutherglen Glencairn wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Penicuik Athletic 1+ goals
89%
Penicuik Athletic 2+ goals
65%
Penicuik Athletic 3+ goals
38%
Rutherglen Glencairn 1+ goals
87%
Rutherglen Glencairn 2+ goals
61%
Rutherglen Glencairn 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Penicuik Athletic (draw refunded)
54%
Rutherglen Glencairn (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penicuik Athletic at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Rutherglen Glencairn away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penicuik Athletic attack 1.43 + Rutherglen Glencairn defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Rutherglen Glencairn attack 1.67 + Penicuik Athletic defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Penicuik Athletic scores more
43%
level
20%
Rutherglen Glencairn scores more
37%

Penicuik Athletic at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Penicuik Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penicuik Athletic vs Rutherglen Glencairn

Penicuik Athletic beat Rutherglen Glencairn 4-2 in FA Cup on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Penicuik Park in Penicuik.