Penicuik Athletic 0–1 Musselburgh Athletic

Penicuik Athletic

FT

0 – 1

Musselburgh Athletic

8/27/2022

FA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundPenicuik Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Penicuik Athletic22%

×Draw20%

Musselburgh Athletic58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Penicuik AthleticExpected goals in this matchMusselburgh Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.21

Penicuik Athletic

1.31

Musselburgh Athletic

2.21

Musselburgh Athletic creates 69% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

2.00

2.43

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Penicuik Athletic

1.43

Musselburgh Athletic

2.00

allows per match

Penicuik Athletic

2.43

Musselburgh Athletic

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Penicuik Athletic+0.00on par

Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penicuik Athletic ↓

Musselburgh Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Penicuik Athletic or draw

42%

Penicuik Athletic or Musselburgh Athletic

80%

Draw or Musselburgh Athletic

78%

Winning margin

Penicuik Athletic wins by 2+

9%

Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Penicuik Athletic 1+ goals

73%

Penicuik Athletic 2+ goals

38%

Penicuik Athletic 3+ goals

14%

Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals

89%

Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals

65%

Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Penicuik Athletic (draw refunded)

28%

Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penicuik Athletic at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Musselburgh Athletic away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penicuik Athletic attack 1.43 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.00 + Penicuik Athletic defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Penicuik Athletic scores more

22%

level

20%

Musselburgh Athletic scores more

58%

Musselburgh Athletic at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff