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Penicuik Athletic vs Kilwinning Rangers — FA Cup 2019

Penicuik Athletic
Penicuik Athletic
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Kilwinning Rangers
Kilwinning Rangers
8/30/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundMontgomery Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Penicuik Athletic30%
×Draw21%
Kilwinning Rangers49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penicuik Athletic
1.71
Kilwinning Rangers
2.21

Kilwinning Rangers creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Penicuik Athletic
1.43
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00

allows per match

Penicuik Athletic
2.43
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00

finishing

Penicuik Athletic+0.00on par
Kilwinning Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penicuik Athletic ↓

Kilwinning Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Penicuik Athletic or draw
51%
Penicuik Athletic or Kilwinning Rangers
79%
Draw or Kilwinning Rangers
70%

Winning margin

Penicuik Athletic wins by 2+
15%
Kilwinning Rangers wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Penicuik Athletic 1+ goals
82%
Penicuik Athletic 2+ goals
51%
Penicuik Athletic 3+ goals
24%
Kilwinning Rangers 1+ goals
89%
Kilwinning Rangers 2+ goals
65%
Kilwinning Rangers 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Penicuik Athletic (draw refunded)
38%
Kilwinning Rangers (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penicuik Athletic at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Kilwinning Rangers away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penicuik Athletic attack 1.43 + Kilwinning Rangers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kilwinning Rangers attack 2.00 + Penicuik Athletic defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Penicuik Athletic scores more
30%
level
21%
Kilwinning Rangers scores more
49%

Kilwinning Rangers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kilwinning Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penicuik Athletic vs Kilwinning Rangers

Kilwinning Rangers beat Penicuik Athletic 4-2 in FA Cup on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Montgomery Park in Penicuik.