Peniche 0–2 Pacos Ferreira: Result & Stats

Peniche

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pacos Ferreira

9/22/2024

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Peniche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Peniche42%

×Draw20%

Pacos Ferreira38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PenicheExpected goals in this matchPacos Ferreira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

2.13

Peniche

2.25

Pacos Ferreira

2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

3.25

creates per match

1.75

2.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Peniche

3.25

Pacos Ferreira

1.75

allows per match

Peniche

2.50

Pacos Ferreira

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peniche+0.00on par

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peniche ↓

Pacos Ferreira →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Peniche or draw

62%

Peniche or Pacos Ferreira

80%

Draw or Pacos Ferreira

58%

Winning margin

Peniche wins by 2+

24%

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Peniche 1+ goals

89%

Peniche 2+ goals

65%

Peniche 3+ goals

39%

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

88%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

63%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Peniche (draw refunded)

53%

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peniche at home — creates 3.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peniche attack 3.25 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.75 + Peniche defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peniche scores more

42%

level

20%

Pacos Ferreira scores more

38%

Peniche at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peniche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff