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Peniche vs 1º Dezembro — Taça de Portugal 2018

Peniche
Peniche
FT
4 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
1º Dezembro
1º Dezembroadvanced
9/21/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 128Estádio do Peniche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Peniche40%
×Draw19%
1º Dezembro40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peniche
2.38
1º Dezembro
2.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Peniche
3.25
1º Dezembro
2.25

allows per match

Peniche
2.50
1º Dezembro
1.50

finishing

Peniche+0.00on par
1º Dezembro+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peniche ↓

1º Dezembro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Peniche or draw
60%
Peniche or 1º Dezembro
81%
Draw or 1º Dezembro
60%

Winning margin

Peniche wins by 2+
23%
1º Dezembro wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Peniche 1+ goals
91%
Peniche 2+ goals
68%
Peniche 3+ goals
42%
1º Dezembro 1+ goals
91%
1º Dezembro 2+ goals
68%
1º Dezembro 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Peniche (draw refunded)
50%
1º Dezembro (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peniche at home — creates 3.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

1º Dezembro away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peniche attack 3.25 + 1º Dezembro defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

1º Dezembro attack 2.25 + Peniche defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Peniche scores more
40%
level
19%
1º Dezembro scores more
40%

Peniche at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Peniche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peniche vs 1º Dezembro

1º Dezembro beat Peniche 5-4 in Taça de Portugal on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio do Peniche in Peniche.