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Pendikspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Pendikspor
Pendikspor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
1/19/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 20Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pendikspor72%
×Draw17%
Yeni Malatyaspor11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pendikspor
2.33
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.77

Pendikspor creates 203% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pendikspor
1.51
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.70

allows per match

Pendikspor
0.84
Yeni Malatyaspor
3.15

finishing

Pendikspor+0.00on par
Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pendikspor ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pendikspor or draw
89%
Pendikspor or Yeni Malatyaspor
83%
Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor
28%

Winning margin

Pendikspor wins by 2+
49%
Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pendikspor 1+ goals
90%
Pendikspor 2+ goals
67%
Pendikspor 3+ goals
41%
Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
54%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
18%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pendikspor (draw refunded)
87%
Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pendikspor at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.84 · 55 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pendikspor attack 1.51 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.33

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Pendikspor defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Pendikspor scores more
72%
level
17%
Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
11%

Pendikspor at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Pendikspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Pendikspor 4–0 Yeni Malatyaspor

Pendikspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 4-0 in 1. Lig on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu in İstanbul.