Pendikspor 3–0 Düzcespor: Result & Stats

Pendikspor

FT

3 – 0

Düzcespor

11/5/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundPendik Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pendikspor51%

×Draw21%

Düzcespor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PendiksporExpected goals in this matchDüzcespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.48

Pendikspor

2.05

Düzcespor

1.48

Pendikspor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.60

creates per match

1.17

1.80

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Pendikspor

2.60

Düzcespor

1.17

allows per match

Pendikspor

1.80

Düzcespor

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pendikspor+0.00on par

Düzcespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pendikspor ↓

Düzcespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Pendikspor or draw

72%

Pendikspor or Düzcespor

79%

Draw or Düzcespor

49%

Winning margin

Pendikspor wins by 2+

29%

Düzcespor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pendikspor 1+ goals

87%

Pendikspor 2+ goals

61%

Pendikspor 3+ goals

33%

Düzcespor 1+ goals

77%

Düzcespor 2+ goals

43%

Düzcespor 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Pendikspor (draw refunded)

64%

Düzcespor (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pendikspor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Düzcespor away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pendikspor attack 2.60 + Düzcespor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.05

Düzcespor attack 1.17 + Pendikspor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pendikspor scores more

51%

level

21%

Düzcespor scores more

28%

Pendikspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pendikspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff